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📈 JANUARY 2024 Market Watch

In January 2024, the Toronto real estate market exhibited promising signs of growth, with home sales experiencing a notable increase compared to the same period in 2023. This rise was attributed to the benefits garnered by homebuyers from lower borrowing costs associated with fixed-rate mortgage products. Additionally, new listings also saw a year-over-year uptick, albeit at a lesser rate compared to sales, resulting in tighter market conditions compared to the previous year.

TRREB President Jennifer Pearce expressed optimism about the positive start to 2024, highlighting the potential for lower interest rates supported by the Bank of Canada's expectations of receding inflation throughout the year. This anticipated scenario is expected to bolster homebuyers' confidence and make homeownership more accessible, particularly for first-time buyers facing high average rents.

The month of January saw 4,223 sales reported through TRREB's MLS® System, marking an increase of more than one-third compared to January 2023. Concurrently, new listings also showed growth, albeit at a lesser annual rate of approximately six percent. The stronger sales growth relative to listings suggests that buyers experienced tighter market conditions compared to the previous year, potentially paving the way for renewed price growth as the spring market approaches.

Overall, the January 2024 TRREB report paints a picture of a resilient and evolving real estate market in Toronto, offering promising opportunities for both buyers and sellers as the year unfolds.

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📈 DECEMBER 2023 Market Watch

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market faced a dynamic landscape in December 2023, according to the latest report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Despite the challenges posed by high mortgage rates and affordability concerns, the market demonstrated resilience, with a focus on the rental sector driven by record immigration in 2023.

Demand Dynamics: While overall housing demand remained robust, a notable shift was observed, with a significant portion of it directed towards the rental market. Affordability issues, exacerbated by high borrowing costs and stringent federal mortgage qualification standards, led to less than 70,000 GTA home sales in 2023. However, TRREB President Jennifer Pearce expressed optimism, anticipating relief as borrowing costs are expected to trend lower in 2024, potentially sparking a rebound in home sales.

Market Statistics: In 2023, there were 65,982 home sales reported through TRREB's MLS® System, reflecting a 12.1 percent decrease compared to the previous year. Despite a spring and summer uptick, new listings also declined in 2023, presenting a challenge in the face of a steadily growing population. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, December saw an increase in sales compared to November, while new listings declined for the third consecutive month.

Price Adjustments and Buyer Benefits: The average selling price for all home types in 2023 was $1,126,604, indicating a 5.4 percent decline compared to 2022. Buyers in the market benefited from increased choices, allowing negotiations for lower selling prices amid higher borrowing costs. TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer anticipates renewed price growth if borrowing costs trend lower in the coming year.

Future Outlook and Housing Stability: Looking ahead, TRREB CEO John DiMichele highlighted the necessity of addressing the growing demand resulting from record immigration. He emphasized the need for an increased number of homes available for rent or purchase to provide stability and affordability for residents in the GTA.

In conclusion, the GTA housing market is poised for change in 2024, with expectations of lower borrowing costs and a potential rebound in sales. As the market adapts to evolving trends, ensuring a balance between demand and supply remains crucial for sustaining the GTA's dynamic real estate landscape.

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📉 NOVEMBER 2023 Market Watch

In November 2023, Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales faced headwinds from high borrowing costs and economic uncertainty, resulting in a six percent year-over-year decline, as reported by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). However, amidst these challenges, the market experienced a surge in listings, offering more choices for potential buyers compared to the previous year's supply trough.

Affordability Challenges: The impact of inflation and elevated borrowing costs manifested in a notable dip in affordability, particularly in the interest rate-sensitive housing market. TRREB President Paul Baron highlighted this concern but expressed optimism, citing decreasing bond yields and forecasts of potential Bank of Canada rate cuts in early 2024. Lower rates are expected to alleviate affordability challenges for both existing homeowners and prospective buyers.

Market Statistics: GTA REALTORS® reported 4,236 sales in November 2023, marking a six percent decrease compared to the same month in 2022. Concurrently, new listings experienced a significant uptick, rising by 16.5 percent, providing a more balanced market with increased options for buyers. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, sales showed a slight increase from October 2023, while new listings declined by 5.5 percent.

Price Adjustments and Future Projections: The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark and the average selling price remained relatively flat year-over-year, signaling a stabilization in response to higher borrowing costs. TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer anticipates a renewed growth in home prices as mortgage rates trend lower in the coming year and the population continues to grow.

Policy Decisions and Calls for Action: TRREB CEO John DiMichele emphasized the importance of homes as fundamental living spaces and acknowledged recent policy decisions contributing to affordability, such as allowing insured mortgage holders to switch lenders without stress tests. Additionally, DiMichele urged the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) to adopt a similar approach for uninsured mortgages. Further policy initiatives are deemed necessary to address the ongoing demand-supply imbalance.

In summary, the GTA real estate market in November 2023 faced challenges but also showed resilience and adaptability. As economic conditions evolve and policies respond, the market is poised for potential growth, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers in the dynamic Toronto real estate landscape.

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